WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: REAL SALT LAKE
Welcome back to What You Need To Know, a preview for Austin FC fans to check in on their next opponent.
Opponent: Real Salt Lake
Kick Off time: 7:30 PM
Location: Q2 Stadium, Austin, TX
One of the things I love about soccer is how subjective it can be. Different people can watch the same match and come up with different conclusions or concepts of how the teams lined up how they played, and individual performances.
One of the things I hate about soccer is how subjective it can be. Different people can watch the same match and come up with different conclusions or concepts of how the teams lined up how they played, and individual performances.
It’s why narratives and statistics are so important to try and bring facts into these discussions to make sure everyone is coming from the same basic reality. Austin FC has had an anemic attack this season and after a Houston match that saw 18 shots and 5 on goal, there has been a narrative about how Austin isn’t clinical enough in front of goal. The issue with this narrative is that Austin isn’t a team that generates plenty of chances in the first place, having generated the fewest xG in the conference, along with the fewest shots taken and fewest shots on target in all of MLS. To act like this is a team that plays fluid attacking soccer and is just unlucky is hilariously wrong. It’s a team that doesn’t score because they don’t generate scoring opportunities.
Three of the four worst xG teams in the conference (Austin, FC Dallas, San Jose Earthquakes) were all coached by former Gregg Berhalter assistants, and only one still has a job. Combined with the Columbus Crew’s success before and after Berhalter’s tenure is it reasonable to point out that the system Josh Wolff ascribes Austin FC to just fundamentally doesn’t work?
History vs. Austin FC:
Real Salt Lake is 5-3 against FC all-time but has only won in Q2 one time (2023). Earlier this season they won 5-1 thanks to a Cristian Arango hat-trick and an Anderson Julio brace.
Recent Matches:
RSL has 7 points in their last four matches and has been on a slide this summer (5 of their 7 losses are since June 22). They currently sit in 2nd place in the Western Conference and have already clinched a playoff spot.
Players to Watch:
Cristian Arango
The former LAFC striker has had another great season when he wasn’t suspended four games for reasons that still haven’t been fully explained. He’s currently tied for second in the Golden Boot race and is obviously the key for the Austin FC defense to stop, something they haven’t been able to do in previous matchups (7 goals in 5 games against Austin FC and a goal every time he’s started).
Gavin Beavers
The 19-year-old has “won” the RSL goalkeeping job after Zac MacMath’s blunders (most notably against FC Dallas). That being said, he’s still allowed 20 goals in 11 starts this season and for a normally stout defensive side, RSL have given up 9 goals in their past three matches.
Emeka Enelli
The 24-year-old US-born midfielder serves as a bellwether for them. When he’s active and involved he provides the passing and service to their attackers. The hard part of keeping him off the ball is his ability to win it back (he leads RSL in tackles), which is why getting players around him will be so important for the Austin FC midfield.
Keys to the Match:
Scoreboard watching
With Austin FC’s chances of advancing dwindling by the match, there’s very little to pay attention to. Austin needs three points tonight in order to make sure they stay alive.
The match-ups to watch tonight:
Minnesota vs. Colorado
Vancouver vs. Portland
An Austin FC loss tonight along with a Portland win or loss and a Minnesota win would mathematically eliminate them from the playoffs. One of the biggest issues (besides their own form) is that Austin FC is so far behind in every tiebreaker against these teams if they do end up even on points.
Playing out the String
Austin FC has never finished a season strongly and this one appears no different.
Last 10 matches (W-D-L):
2021 - 4-0-6
2022 - 3-2-5
2023 - 1-4-5
It’s also disconcerting with all of the “Rodo’s improving the squad” narratives to point out that Austin FC has been worse after the League’s Cup break than before it. With new players arriving and improving the talent level of the squad, shouldn’t we be getting better results to go along with that?
Saint Stuver
Something we’ve been tracking along with our frenemies over at The False Nine is Brad Stuver’s possibly ignominious quest to be the first MLS keeper to lead the league in saves in three different seasons. He led the league in 2021 and 2023 and only missed out in 2022 by virtue of missing two games. He’s currently leading MLS with 122 in 30 starts (5 more than LA Galaxy’s John McCarthy).
See you at Q2!
WRITTEN BY: SCOTT SPECHT
