WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES
Welcome back to What You Need To Know, a preview for Austin FC fans to check in on their next opponent.
Can you smell that? It’s…the smell of positivity floating through Austin. They won two matches at Q2 last week and are sitting in third in the Western Conference. I was a bit surprised watching the Apple TV preview when Taylor Twellman responded to a question about how Austin FC is performing by stating:
“Well, they’re still in the bottom five of expected goals. And when you look at their six wins on the year, two of those against Houston, and that’s the only playoff team ahead of them (writer’s note, they aren’t), and the LA Galaxy are winless in five.”
Unfortunately, xG is a punditry plague as few people understand it and even fewer take the time to explain its flaws. By only considering shots it diminishes the beautiful game into the basest form and doesn’t take into account situations, players, or context. It’s an easy way to try and seem smarter about the sport, much like speaking in an English accent or moving your fingers back and forth while discussing tactics. It’s also reductive and I doubt Taylor has spent any time watching Austin FC outside of any matches he announced. If he wants to note xG totals he could mention that nearly a third of their xG on the season has been accumulated in their last three matches, a sign the team is improving.
Teams can have good or bad runs in form, Taylor knows this, diminishing the Austin FC win against the Galaxy (when they were leading the West and won four of their last five games) and bizarrely diminishing beating Houston twice in less than a month. Something is necessary to do to advance in the playoffs.
One of the things I love about soccer is that it is subjective. People can come to different conclusions about players, teams, and the coaching staff based on their own perspectives. However, for these discussions to be fun and worthwhile, those opinions need to be informed, even more so when you’re being paid to give them.
History vs. Austin FC:
Austin FC has never won in San Jose (0-1-2) and beat them for the first time in club history in a thrilling 4-3 win at Q2 in March.
Recent Matches:
San Jose have lost three in a row including a mid-week US Open Cup loss against local-ish rival Sacramento Republic 4-3, blowing a lead in extra time by allowing two goals past the 106’ mark.
Players to Watch:
Hernan Lopez
The Argentinian DP was signed at the end of April and has already made an impact on San Jose with two goals in four appearances. He’s slid into the middle of the attack, providing creativity and link-up play. Most notably he’s allowed Cristian Espinoza to be off the ball more and use his pace to stretch defenses vertically instead of trying to drive the attack by himself.
Jackson Yuiell
The midfielder didn’t play in the previous match but will be available tonight. He plays as a box-to-box midfielder, logging the third-most minutes on the team and the second-most passing attempts, his match-up against Alex Ring/Dani Perreira will be key in controlling the pace of the match.
Paul Marie
The French left-back scored twice at Q2 (one being disallowed) and is dangerous on the wing going forward. Austin FC has been susceptible to this run at the back post, with our defense outnumbered and the open attacker punishing us with goal after goal. One of the keys to Austin’s improvement on defense in recent weeks has been preventing those exact runs and chances being created.
Keys to the Match:
Depth on the Edges
The Austin FC injury report lists Guilherme Biro and Jon Gallagher as Questionable, which forces Austin into utilizing Zan Kolmanic and Hector Jimenez at fullback (barring an unforeseen change of formation). With Cristian Espinoza and Amahl Pelligrino probable starters on the wings, they will have their boots full trying to keep them off the scoresheet.
Tipping the Scales
In road matches this season Coach Wolff has placed the team’s focus firmly on the defense side of things with expected results, only giving up five goals in six matches (for comparison they’ve given up 12 goals in eight home matches). San Jose is the worst defensive team in the league, giving up 33 goals in 14 and 12 goals in their six home matches. They’ve only held two sides to 1 goal at home (LAFC and Orlando City) so this would be the opportunity for Wolff to try and attack to gain an early advantage.
Midfield Mixed Up
Against Sporting KC Alex Ring sat in favor of Johan Valencia and Dani Perreira centrally which unlocked something Austin fans have been talking about since preseason: playing Dani further forward to take advantage of his creativity and dribbling. This was done out of necessity earlier this season when Sebastian Driussi was out, but that proved ineffective (especially against Seattle). With Dani alongside Driussi, he was able to find space on the right and link with Jadier Obrian for multiple goals. Wolff has had a penchant for running out lineups that worked in the previous game, so will we see Dani deployed with room to attack again? Or will Wolff stick to his regular lineup?
WRITTEN BY SCOTT SPECHT
